Use Bayes' rule to find the indicated probability. The incidence of a certain disease on the island of Tukow is 4%. A new test has been developed to diagnose the disease. Using this test, 91% of those who have the disease test positive while 4% of those who do not have the disease test positive (false positive). If a person tests positive, what is the probability that he or she actually has the disease?
These are the events in the question above:
D - has disease
H - healthy (does not have disease)
P - tests positive
It is the probability that a person has the disease AND tests positive divided by the probability that the person tests positive.